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Tonight was certainly busy, and definitely a bit odd. After appearing at a City of Seattle mixer in my other persona of dedicated worker bee, it was off to a Municipal League candidate interview - a distinctly odd experience given my time on the other end of the stick back in my SEAMEC days.
I hadn't thought I was nervous - but it turns out I was, at least initially. Hopefully, I didn't bobble too badly, but it brought me a new appreciation of what those candidates of yore went through.
Just home, sending a few e-mails and doing some work and campaign stuff, then off to bed.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
The GOP Platform
In case I've been insufficiently clear under "Why Reluctant"...
To dissect appropriately...
The family unit is a cornerstone of a free society - but it is not the only one, but one of several upon which a culture is built. Further, morality - while having many common features across many religious and ethical structures - is a good long way from universal...so what say we stick to *free* and leave morals and ethics for sorting out by either individuals and their churches, or individuals and their chosen ethical structure.
It is the responsibility of parents, and those parents by wisely choosing elected officials, to educate children in the meaning of being a good citizen and to inculcate a proper degree of skepticism about what "everyone knows" and towards authority figures in general.
Governments responsibility in such matters, where any such responsibility exists, is to prevent or abort abusive situations and to enforce and interpret (when necessary) contracts between consenting and competent adults regarding co-habitation, child-raising, and resource sharing - ameliorating the worst abuses when found. It is emphatically not to preserve tradition (which may be right, wrong, or some state between).
Protecting the elderly and children from the worst elements of society is, indeed, a worthy goal. But, one must ask, who is "worst" this week, and what do you mean by protection?
Are we talking about LGBT folk shouldn't be allowed in the teaching or medical professions? Or are we talking about "axe murders probably shouldn't be caregivers? A certain precision in language would be appreciated here, given the sad history of such things. The second I can get behind...the first, not so much.
It's things like this (and oh, so very many others) that leave me lukewarm about the GOP as it sits today. I have far more hope for its improvement, however, than I do for the Democrats...and that saddens me.
Washington GOP 2010 Platform:
To dissect appropriately...
The family unit is a cornerstone of a free society - but it is not the only one, but one of several upon which a culture is built. Further, morality - while having many common features across many religious and ethical structures - is a good long way from universal...so what say we stick to *free* and leave morals and ethics for sorting out by either individuals and their churches, or individuals and their chosen ethical structure.
It is the responsibility of parents, and those parents by wisely choosing elected officials, to educate children in the meaning of being a good citizen and to inculcate a proper degree of skepticism about what "everyone knows" and towards authority figures in general.
Governments responsibility in such matters, where any such responsibility exists, is to prevent or abort abusive situations and to enforce and interpret (when necessary) contracts between consenting and competent adults regarding co-habitation, child-raising, and resource sharing - ameliorating the worst abuses when found. It is emphatically not to preserve tradition (which may be right, wrong, or some state between).
Protecting the elderly and children from the worst elements of society is, indeed, a worthy goal. But, one must ask, who is "worst" this week, and what do you mean by protection?
Are we talking about LGBT folk shouldn't be allowed in the teaching or medical professions? Or are we talking about "axe murders probably shouldn't be caregivers? A certain precision in language would be appreciated here, given the sad history of such things. The second I can get behind...the first, not so much.
It's things like this (and oh, so very many others) that leave me lukewarm about the GOP as it sits today. I have far more hope for its improvement, however, than I do for the Democrats...and that saddens me.
Belltown Violence
The recent events in Belltown, one of Seattle's more notable entertainment and condo districts, cry out for a response. Muggings, stabbings, car prowls, and criminal shootings are all part of the same package of "things none of us like happening in our neighborhoods or anywhere near us".
At the same time, the *obvious* solutions have either been tried or are temporary sops that while they may provide some temporary relief (assigning 20-30 more uniformed Seattle Police officers to the area on the graveyard shift may *move* the problem - but eventually those officers will need to be re-assigned and the trouble returns), fail to address the underlying problem.
A failure to recognize a glaring demonstration of the Law of Unintended Consequences.
After Prohibition ended, for some reason some particularly clever soul came to the conclusion that bar owners couldn't be trusted to decide their own operating hours and mandated closure of every single bar in the state at the same time, 2 a.m. ...
Now, whatever benefits might be seen from this, a demonstrable result is that between 1:30 a.m. and 2:30 a.m. we consistently see an increase in criminal activity as folks depart (or are ejected from) en mass from various bars and venues with hormones and alcohol intertwined in a toxic mix of varying intensity leading to diminished judgment skills and combined with lessened inhibitions.
More bluntly, by tossing all those varyingly inebriated folks out onto the streets in response to a mandated closing hour in one great push we not only create an opportunity for the ejected to be stupid (occasionally criminally) amongst themselves - but we serve up those very people on a silver platter to every predator in the region at a prearranged time and place.
When we have a whole bunch of bars and entertainment venues in a relatively compact area (BellTown) it only enhances the effect.
This mix doesn't precisely improve local living conditions for residents of BellTown. It's not good for bars or entertainment venues either, in that if it's scary to visit an area, the number of paying customers diminishes as a new less-scary hot-spot pops up. And finally, it's not precisely a help in marketing the safety and urbanity of a City.
Just perhaps, as part of the solution, we can *consider* at the level of the State Legislature whether the mandatory 2 a.m. closing time really provides the citizens of Washington with benefits sufficient to outweigh its' costs in blood and tears.
At the same time, the *obvious* solutions have either been tried or are temporary sops that while they may provide some temporary relief (assigning 20-30 more uniformed Seattle Police officers to the area on the graveyard shift may *move* the problem - but eventually those officers will need to be re-assigned and the trouble returns), fail to address the underlying problem.
A failure to recognize a glaring demonstration of the Law of Unintended Consequences.
After Prohibition ended, for some reason some particularly clever soul came to the conclusion that bar owners couldn't be trusted to decide their own operating hours and mandated closure of every single bar in the state at the same time, 2 a.m. ...
Now, whatever benefits might be seen from this, a demonstrable result is that between 1:30 a.m. and 2:30 a.m. we consistently see an increase in criminal activity as folks depart (or are ejected from) en mass from various bars and venues with hormones and alcohol intertwined in a toxic mix of varying intensity leading to diminished judgment skills and combined with lessened inhibitions.
More bluntly, by tossing all those varyingly inebriated folks out onto the streets in response to a mandated closing hour in one great push we not only create an opportunity for the ejected to be stupid (occasionally criminally) amongst themselves - but we serve up those very people on a silver platter to every predator in the region at a prearranged time and place.
When we have a whole bunch of bars and entertainment venues in a relatively compact area (BellTown) it only enhances the effect.
This mix doesn't precisely improve local living conditions for residents of BellTown. It's not good for bars or entertainment venues either, in that if it's scary to visit an area, the number of paying customers diminishes as a new less-scary hot-spot pops up. And finally, it's not precisely a help in marketing the safety and urbanity of a City.
Just perhaps, as part of the solution, we can *consider* at the level of the State Legislature whether the mandatory 2 a.m. closing time really provides the citizens of Washington with benefits sufficient to outweigh its' costs in blood and tears.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
The 2011 Budget Crisis
Thursday, the Governors office reported (via the Seattle Times) that the Legislature will face a $3 billion gap when they start writing the new 2011-2013 biennium budget this coming January.
The easy fixes are gone, the painless cuts long since past, and the tax payers growing cranky. The taxes passed in the last legislative session look to be up for repeal, and a reprise of Initiative 960 seems likely to appear if not this fall, certainly the next.
That will only leave legislators in 2011 with a choice of which oxen are to be gored - which programs will be cut or eliminated, and who will be the target of unwelcome new taxes. And if the Governors revenue projections have any merit as a barometer, neither cities or counties will be in any position to pick up the slack.
Not surprisingly, I'm not much of a fan of new taxes as a way to fix the situation - the secondary effects on employers, workers, and folks trying to survive on limited incomes are likely to be devastating to say the least.
Faced with the current range of choices (each and every single one of them bad, to a greater or lesser degree)...are the folks that got us here really the ones you want to trust come January?
The easy fixes are gone, the painless cuts long since past, and the tax payers growing cranky. The taxes passed in the last legislative session look to be up for repeal, and a reprise of Initiative 960 seems likely to appear if not this fall, certainly the next.
That will only leave legislators in 2011 with a choice of which oxen are to be gored - which programs will be cut or eliminated, and who will be the target of unwelcome new taxes. And if the Governors revenue projections have any merit as a barometer, neither cities or counties will be in any position to pick up the slack.
Not surprisingly, I'm not much of a fan of new taxes as a way to fix the situation - the secondary effects on employers, workers, and folks trying to survive on limited incomes are likely to be devastating to say the least.
Faced with the current range of choices (each and every single one of them bad, to a greater or lesser degree)...are the folks that got us here really the ones you want to trust come January?
Friday, June 18, 2010
$7 a gallon gas
Reported at the New York Post, the current administrations proposal to respond to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico would drive gas and diesel prices at the pump to $7/gallon and beyond according to Harvard economists.
What does that mean?
Well, aside from pain for all at the pump, such events would have a number of serious and less obvious implications - and as a state legislative candidate, I tend to look at how it would affect the state budget and Washington citizens.
I'm not a formally educated economist, but some things seem kind of obvious. From a purely environmental and national security point of view ($7/ga means folks will drive a LOT less - fewer pollutants, and reduced dependence on foreign oil) it's a DANDY idea. When you start to factor in economic effects, not nearly so much.
Fuel costs (very obviously) are going to go right through the budget-busting roof for every single state agency - meaning money budgeted for services will suddenly either be getting transferred to motor vehicle operations...or simply sitting unspent, as the service provider cannot get to the
target audience on foot and with fuel prices at that level, it isn't a good bet they'll be willing to run their own gas-burner down the road. This will be no less true for cities and counties.
Now, as a result of higher fuel costs, individuals and businesses will be buying less (as they will be spending a larger portion of their funds on fuel) and most will be seeking to make up their losses by economizing across the board. Discretionary spending will, for many, simply vanish as an option.
Watch sales tax revenue drop.
Next, the cost of goods will also rise dramatically, followed shortly by consumer prices. Cost of goods includes materials production (often requiring energy, often oil), materials transport, assembly, transport from either manufacturer to consumer or to wholesaler (and thence transport to retailer), and then the cost of end-business (the folks who sell the goody du jour to the end user) operations (rent, salary, utilities, taxes, etc). Count the number of times a product is transported. $7.00/gallon will dramatically increase the cost of each transport or production step along the way - and those costs are, in turn, passed forward. Watch prices scream through the ceiling. Yet another price driver that will reduce sales, and thus sales tax revenue - not only do consumers suddenly have less money available, but everything the eye beholds suddenly costs more. Another sales tax revenue killer.
Now, the above isn't precisely *good* for most businesses. When customers don't buy or can't buy, businesses tend to reduce hours and employees - and often just plain close the doors and the owners attempt to go find something more productive to do than throwing cash down a rat hole. Again, whenever a business closes, the B&O tax revenues take a hit. And folks go on unemployment, generating an expense that places an additional pressure on a budget already under siege from diminishing revenues.
While all this may be one heck of a cool thing for folks in the Electric Vehicle business...there's a tiny little hitch. No matter what we want, we are not going to see a 100% or even 10% conversion to electric vehicles in the near term - because the manufacturing plants simply aren't there to support the volume necessary, and it takes TIME to build them.
This is just a preliminary contemplation...but, I suggest, one we should consider in planning our states future. Far too often we've been caught flat-footed and driven into ill-considered reactive "must do something" mode...only to pay again later to fix the panicked "solution" thrown into place mid-crisis. Generally, planning ahead hurts less.
What does that mean?
Well, aside from pain for all at the pump, such events would have a number of serious and less obvious implications - and as a state legislative candidate, I tend to look at how it would affect the state budget and Washington citizens.
I'm not a formally educated economist, but some things seem kind of obvious. From a purely environmental and national security point of view ($7/ga means folks will drive a LOT less - fewer pollutants, and reduced dependence on foreign oil) it's a DANDY idea. When you start to factor in economic effects, not nearly so much.
Fuel costs (very obviously) are going to go right through the budget-busting roof for every single state agency - meaning money budgeted for services will suddenly either be getting transferred to motor vehicle operations...or simply sitting unspent, as the service provider cannot get to the
target audience on foot and with fuel prices at that level, it isn't a good bet they'll be willing to run their own gas-burner down the road. This will be no less true for cities and counties.
Now, as a result of higher fuel costs, individuals and businesses will be buying less (as they will be spending a larger portion of their funds on fuel) and most will be seeking to make up their losses by economizing across the board. Discretionary spending will, for many, simply vanish as an option.
Watch sales tax revenue drop.
Next, the cost of goods will also rise dramatically, followed shortly by consumer prices. Cost of goods includes materials production (often requiring energy, often oil), materials transport, assembly, transport from either manufacturer to consumer or to wholesaler (and thence transport to retailer), and then the cost of end-business (the folks who sell the goody du jour to the end user) operations (rent, salary, utilities, taxes, etc). Count the number of times a product is transported. $7.00/gallon will dramatically increase the cost of each transport or production step along the way - and those costs are, in turn, passed forward. Watch prices scream through the ceiling. Yet another price driver that will reduce sales, and thus sales tax revenue - not only do consumers suddenly have less money available, but everything the eye beholds suddenly costs more. Another sales tax revenue killer.
Now, the above isn't precisely *good* for most businesses. When customers don't buy or can't buy, businesses tend to reduce hours and employees - and often just plain close the doors and the owners attempt to go find something more productive to do than throwing cash down a rat hole. Again, whenever a business closes, the B&O tax revenues take a hit. And folks go on unemployment, generating an expense that places an additional pressure on a budget already under siege from diminishing revenues.
While all this may be one heck of a cool thing for folks in the Electric Vehicle business...there's a tiny little hitch. No matter what we want, we are not going to see a 100% or even 10% conversion to electric vehicles in the near term - because the manufacturing plants simply aren't there to support the volume necessary, and it takes TIME to build them.
This is just a preliminary contemplation...but, I suggest, one we should consider in planning our states future. Far too often we've been caught flat-footed and driven into ill-considered reactive "must do something" mode...only to pay again later to fix the panicked "solution" thrown into place mid-crisis. Generally, planning ahead hurts less.
A political neophyte jumps in...
I've done the community activist schtick, encouraged others to run for public office, and in one instance helped a friend get started on a run for office. But that's different from doing it yourself while holding down a job and running a one-man campaign. Even a campaign where you figure if you get enough donations to pay (or even help pay) the bills, it's a win.
Over the last few days I've rushed about, given a news interview, filled out (and continue to fill out) forms, found a possible online donation processor (Clickandpledge), and talked to the local GOP folks. To keep from being bored, I've knocked together a website, set up e-mail, and built this blog - and shortly will be firing up Facebook and Twitter campaign accounts.
And this while pulling down a full work week, updating the company website, and doing a bit of marketing here and there. And there's still plenty to do both at work and regarding the campaign.
If you're going to do this yourself, start at the top of the post, and read through. Before you jump in, go ahead and get together folks that won't just cough up cash - but will jump in and help out. I suspect I'm going to need to overcome my fundamental reticence about such matters and actually ask for that odd thing, help.
I don't regret it a bit, and look forward to the Primary and General elections. But I hadn't expected quite this level of rushing about! I suspect most first-time candidates, if you corner them someplace private, might share similar sentiments...
Best of Wishes,
Ray
Over the last few days I've rushed about, given a news interview, filled out (and continue to fill out) forms, found a possible online donation processor (Clickandpledge), and talked to the local GOP folks. To keep from being bored, I've knocked together a website, set up e-mail, and built this blog - and shortly will be firing up Facebook and Twitter campaign accounts.
And this while pulling down a full work week, updating the company website, and doing a bit of marketing here and there. And there's still plenty to do both at work and regarding the campaign.
If you're going to do this yourself, start at the top of the post, and read through. Before you jump in, go ahead and get together folks that won't just cough up cash - but will jump in and help out. I suspect I'm going to need to overcome my fundamental reticence about such matters and actually ask for that odd thing, help.
I don't regret it a bit, and look forward to the Primary and General elections. But I hadn't expected quite this level of rushing about! I suspect most first-time candidates, if you corner them someplace private, might share similar sentiments...
Best of Wishes,
Ray
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Housekeeping
A few matters of blog tidiness. This creature, the blog, is going to evolve fairly constantly.
1) Links will pop up. They may not be to folks I agree with (or they might be), but they are folks that tend to make me think, and that I hope would do the same for others.
2) If it doesn't say "endorsement", it isn't an endorsement - either way. I don't endorse them, they don't endorse me. It is what it is.
3) Blog comments. Personal and ad hominem attacks will be mercilessly deleted. At the end of the day this is *my* blog (equivalent to my living room), and I get to decide when someone is engaged in simply unacceptable behavior in this, my blogspace. I don't like using moderation, but will do so if necessary.
Hopefully that covers it all. For now.
Ray
1) Links will pop up. They may not be to folks I agree with (or they might be), but they are folks that tend to make me think, and that I hope would do the same for others.
2) If it doesn't say "endorsement", it isn't an endorsement - either way. I don't endorse them, they don't endorse me. It is what it is.
3) Blog comments. Personal and ad hominem attacks will be mercilessly deleted. At the end of the day this is *my* blog (equivalent to my living room), and I get to decide when someone is engaged in simply unacceptable behavior in this, my blogspace. I don't like using moderation, but will do so if necessary.
Hopefully that covers it all. For now.
Ray
Welcome to The Blog
So, I'm reluctantly Republican, and spending a fair chunk of time explaining what that means, given that I'm running for State Representative, 34th District, Position 1. Most campaign blogs seem to simply be a quick recap of positions already stated on the website, but I'll re-state.
I support efforts to shift to a more sustainable interaction with our environment, particularly in urban areas - but I believe that is best achieved through voluntary participation, education, and leading by example rather than through coercion and fiscally punitive measures.
State fiscal issues are important - they vitally effect our ability to fund necessary programs (when property values are down, and everyone is too broke to buy anything...property and sales tax revenues tend to drop off something fierce, making it hard to PAY the folks working on the programs).
Where revenue falls short, we can either emulate California and play the free-spending drunken sailor as we stagger towards inevitable bankruptcy - or we can make the necessary painful cuts to ride out a recession.
The economy plays a role in almost every aspect of our lives - whether and where we work, what we can afford to eat, how much our wages are worth when we get them and far more. When the economy is in the doldrums and vast numbers of unemployed roam the land in search of unemployment...a certain number of those will, faced with starving under a bridge (or lesser inconveniences, folks thresholds of pain do differ from person to person after all) will develop an exciting new moral flexibility.
At that point, we see violent crime of all sorts pick up...from bank robberies to home invasions, from assault to murder, as fear and desperation drive folks to that exciting new moral flexibility.
As a bonus, progress (or even holding the status quo) in civil rights matters tends to be an artifact of "good times". It's going to take more work to maintain, let alone advance, civil rights than usual as individuals and elected leaders flail about looking for the magic "how do we make it all better" economic bullet.
Oil is not our friend now, and is likely to be even less so in the future. With escalating tensions in the Middle East, impending legislation likely to halt or severely limit domestic production, and the further joys of "Cap and Trade" legislation slowly coming to fruition...we may not be able to precisely predict the price of oil at a given moment - but a steady upward spiral seems a pretty good bet.
Given that today we need oil for such a huge portion of our energy needs, primarily transport of goods and persons, getting off that particular bandwagon in a reasonably orderly fashion seems a prudent measure. I am not entirely objective. I sell electric cars for a living, and I believe the current generation coming out in highway speed are finally a good fit for business and private consumers - comfortable, decent ranges, and with battery issues beginning to be resolved reasonably.
All persons should be equal before the law, neither gaining favor nor suffering disfavor as a result of their race, sex, sexual orientation, religion, creed, or ethnicity. 'Nuff said? That is the goal, not carving out special provisions to compensate for past injuries - we can't fix the past, we can only moderate affect the present, and the future only holds a constantly changing mix of hope and concern. Let's play nicely amongst ourselves, eh?
Finally, Washington has some of the best gun laws in the nation. Such tweaks as I might favor are just that, tweaks. I don't believe the people of Washington are uniquely evil or stupid (and if I'm wrong, we have much more important problems to pay attention to) , so where an approach to this issue has actually worked (as opposed to being legislative chest-beating), I'm probably pretty willing to at least consider it - particularly if it leads to less hassle and fewer pitfalls for the average citizen.
Enough for now...semi-mandatory re-cap complete.
- Ray
I support efforts to shift to a more sustainable interaction with our environment, particularly in urban areas - but I believe that is best achieved through voluntary participation, education, and leading by example rather than through coercion and fiscally punitive measures.
State fiscal issues are important - they vitally effect our ability to fund necessary programs (when property values are down, and everyone is too broke to buy anything...property and sales tax revenues tend to drop off something fierce, making it hard to PAY the folks working on the programs).
Where revenue falls short, we can either emulate California and play the free-spending drunken sailor as we stagger towards inevitable bankruptcy - or we can make the necessary painful cuts to ride out a recession.
The economy plays a role in almost every aspect of our lives - whether and where we work, what we can afford to eat, how much our wages are worth when we get them and far more. When the economy is in the doldrums and vast numbers of unemployed roam the land in search of unemployment...a certain number of those will, faced with starving under a bridge (or lesser inconveniences, folks thresholds of pain do differ from person to person after all) will develop an exciting new moral flexibility.
At that point, we see violent crime of all sorts pick up...from bank robberies to home invasions, from assault to murder, as fear and desperation drive folks to that exciting new moral flexibility.
As a bonus, progress (or even holding the status quo) in civil rights matters tends to be an artifact of "good times". It's going to take more work to maintain, let alone advance, civil rights than usual as individuals and elected leaders flail about looking for the magic "how do we make it all better" economic bullet.
Oil is not our friend now, and is likely to be even less so in the future. With escalating tensions in the Middle East, impending legislation likely to halt or severely limit domestic production, and the further joys of "Cap and Trade" legislation slowly coming to fruition...we may not be able to precisely predict the price of oil at a given moment - but a steady upward spiral seems a pretty good bet.
Given that today we need oil for such a huge portion of our energy needs, primarily transport of goods and persons, getting off that particular bandwagon in a reasonably orderly fashion seems a prudent measure. I am not entirely objective. I sell electric cars for a living, and I believe the current generation coming out in highway speed are finally a good fit for business and private consumers - comfortable, decent ranges, and with battery issues beginning to be resolved reasonably.
All persons should be equal before the law, neither gaining favor nor suffering disfavor as a result of their race, sex, sexual orientation, religion, creed, or ethnicity. 'Nuff said? That is the goal, not carving out special provisions to compensate for past injuries - we can't fix the past, we can only moderate affect the present, and the future only holds a constantly changing mix of hope and concern. Let's play nicely amongst ourselves, eh?
Finally, Washington has some of the best gun laws in the nation. Such tweaks as I might favor are just that, tweaks. I don't believe the people of Washington are uniquely evil or stupid (and if I'm wrong, we have much more important problems to pay attention to) , so where an approach to this issue has actually worked (as opposed to being legislative chest-beating), I'm probably pretty willing to at least consider it - particularly if it leads to less hassle and fewer pitfalls for the average citizen.
Enough for now...semi-mandatory re-cap complete.
- Ray
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